Key Biotech Short Selling Changes in November (AMGN, BIIB, CELG, GILD, GENZ, GERN, LIFE, DNDN, HGSI, AMLN, OSIP)

December 10, 2009 · Filed Under Financial · Comments Off 

We have now seen the changes in short selling in biotech stocks via the late-November short interest report from NASDAQ.  This marks the changes seen at the November 30, 2009 settlement date versus a November 13 settlement date.  We have given short interest data on Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB), Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD),  Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ), Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN), Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE), Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN), Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI), Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN), and OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP).

Again, the change reflects the November 30 date versus a prior date of November 13:

Amgen Inc. (AMGN) 18,247,560 shares versus 15,888,876, a gain of 14.8%.

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) 8,914,221 shares versus 8,201,010, a gain of 8.7%.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) 19,334,491 shares versus 20,330,539, a drop of -4.9%.

Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) 7,800,195 shares versus 8,122,937, a drop of -4.0%.

Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ) 3,835,576 shares versus 4,531,522, a drop of -15.4%

Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN) 13,846,894 shares versus 13,653,745, a gain of 1.4%.

Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE) 8,686,786 shares versus 8,950,719, a drop of -3.0%.

Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) 9,881,341 shares versus 9,105,303, a gain of 8.5%.

Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) 17,100,782 shares versus 17,571,094, a drop of -2.7%.

Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) 8,353,185 shares versus 8,538,392, a drop of -2.2%.

OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP) 5,471,010 versus 5,517,134, a drop of -0.8%.

JON C. OGG
December 10, 2009

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Genzyme Partly Rights Past, As Competition Coming (GENZ, PFE, PLX)

December 1, 2009 · Filed Under Financial, M&A, R&D, fda · Comments Off 

Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ) would normally be taken as though the company has some good news out after it announced that it has begun shipping vials of newly produced Cerezyme® from its Allston Landing plant.  The problem is that Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) is acquiring the worldwide marketing rights to Protalix BioTherapeutics Inc. (AMEX: PLX) experimental drug for Gaucher’s disease for an upfront payment of $60 million.  This will compete head to head against Genzyme if and when it is approved, and if Pfizer is buying it it seems likely that an approval is expected.

Genzyme also gave an update on its progress to restore supplies of Cerezyme and Fabrazyme® (agalsidase beta) for patients worldwide.  The initial Cerezyme shipments will provide uninterrupted treatment for the most vulnerable patients under the current supply conservation guidelines. Genzyme will expand shipments of Cerezyme by the end of this month to patients worldwide who have experienced interruptions in their treatment this year.

Genzyme has also noted that it expects meet anticipated worldwide demand and allow all patients to return to their normal infusion and dosing regimen during the first quarter of next year.  Genzyme is also preparing to ship vials of newly produced Fabrazyme from the Allston plant.  The company is currently producing Fabrazyme at a rate of approximately 70% of what is believed to be the anticipated demand for 2010 and is working to improve the productivity of Fabrazyme manufacturing.

Genzyme noted that it will continue to ship 30% of Fabrazyme demand during Q1-2010 and to build inventory to begin shipping 70% to 100% of demand in Q2-2010 and it will communicate further details about Fabrazyme supply in February 2010.

As far as the competition from Protalix, that company is also eligible to receive additional milestone payments of up to $55 million from Pfizer and will retain the marketing rights to the drug, Uplyso in Israel.  Pfizer and Protalix will share future revenues and expenses for the development and marketing of the drug, with 60% Pfizer and 40% Protalix.  Protalix was granted an orphan drug designation, as well as a fast track status, by the FDA and will compete with Genzyme’s Cerezyme when and if approved.

JON C. OGG

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Activist Going Back After Biogen Idec (BIIB, CELG, GILD, GENZ, AMGN)

November 20, 2009 · Filed Under Financial, multiple sclerosis · Comments Off 

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) is not exactly new to the world of activist investors as there have been problems inside the company for years.  An SEC filing this morning was filed by a fund called HealthCor Management, L.P. located in New York.  It turns out that the fund is not a new entrant here, but the revelations are rather specific rather than broad and non-specific compared to other activist complaints.  More importantly, the fund has CC’d in the following entities:

  • PRIMECAP Management
  • ClearBridge Advisors LLC
  • Barclay’s Global Investors UK
  • Fidelity Management & Research
  • Icahn Capital LP
  • Goldman Sachs Group
  • State Street Corporation
  • Vanguard Group Inc.
  • Capital Research Group Investors
  • Invesco Ltd.

Yep, you knew Carl Icahn was going to be in there.  After all, the most recent Icahn holdings still showed Icahn holding a significant number of shares.

What is interesting is the data that HealthCor provided.  It is calling for a specific buyback plan of $500 million to $1 billion worth of stock PER YEAR.  It noted that Biogen Idec outspends and is expected to outspend all of its major large-cap biotech peers.

The activist group here compared the statistics (most of which include items) to Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD), Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ), Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), and Genentech-Roche.

R&D MARGINS (HISTORICAL AND CONSENSUS)
2007A  2008A 2009E  2010E 2011E
CELG             24%   24%   26%    24%   24%
GILD             12%    12%   12%    13%   13%
GENZ           18%    17%   18%    16%   16%
AMGN           21%    19%   18%    18%   18%
DNA             20%    20%   20%    20%   19%

AVERAGE   19%    18%   19%    18%   18%

BIIB             29%    26%   27%    27%   26%

HealthCor also noted that Biogen has failed to maximize its earnings and cash generation potential.  There is a complain that CEO James Mullen has sold approximately $85 million worth of stock.

Now that the market has stabilized, there are likely to be more activist filings made in realm of underperforming biotech stocks.

JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 20, 2009

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Carl Icahn Narrows BioHealth Focus (AMLN, BIIB, ENZN, CYBX, EXEL, FRX, GENZ, REGN)

November 16, 2009 · Filed Under Financial · Comments Off 

Carl Icahn, via his Icahn Capital LP and other entities owned the following drug and biotech or biohealth names.  There may be some overlaps because of more than 1 filing, but here goes:

Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) 12,971,328 shares;
Biogen Idec Corp. (NASDAQ: BIIB) 3,215,051 shares, second filing showed 12,860,205 shares;
Enzon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ENZN) 704,214 shares;
Cyberonics Inc. (NASDAQ: CYBX) 2,107,972 shares;
Exelixis Inc. (NASDAQ: EXEL) 2,357,110 shares;
Forest Labs (NYSE: FRX) 1,000,000 shares
Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ) 1,450,800 shares;
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN) 2,508,001 shares.

Two smaller positions were omitted.

This is not the smallest amount he has held in biotechs and biohealth plays, but the focus looks narrower than in the past when there were more positions.

JON C. OGG

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Genzyme Yells All Clear, Sort Of (GENZ)

November 13, 2009 · Filed Under Financial, fda · Comments Off 

Genzyme Corp. (Nasdaq: GENZ) issued a press release defending itself after such a large stock drop today due to the FDA notice on foreign particles being present in some drugs.

The company announced that it has issued letters to U.S. healthcare providers regarding its enzyme replacement products Cerezyme® (imiglucerase for injection), Fabrazyme® (agalsidase beta), Myozyme® (alglucosidase alfa), Aldurazyme® (laronidase), as well as Thyrogen® (thyrotropin alfa for injection), filled at its Allston Landing manufacturing facility. The letters remind providers of the U.S. product labeling recommendations advising both visual inspection of vials and in-line filtration of enzyme replacement products to address the potential presence of foreign particles.

The safety profile of these products remains unchanged. A review of the global safety database for these products has not identified any safety concerns to suggest that patients treated with Genzyme products have been exposed to foreign particles. However, a theoretical safety risk remains should a particle enter the bloodstream.

Genzyme’s quality control processes have detected foreign particles in these products at a rate of approximately 1 percent. The company’s rate has not increased over time. The global rate of product returns from customers due to the observance of foreign particles is less than approximately 0.02 percent for these products. Genzyme remains committed to reducing the frequency of foreign particles in all of our products.

The company noted that healthcare provider letters are available on the company’s product websites.

Shares closed down 7.3% at $49.29, close to the bottom of its $47.09 to $73.75 ranhge over the last 52-weeks.

JON C. OGG

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Key Biotech Short Interest Changes (AMGN, GILD, BIIB, CELG, GENZ, GERN, LIFE, DNDN, HGSI, AMLN, OSIP)

November 11, 2009 · Filed Under Financial · Comments Off 

We have now been able to see the short interest changes that took place over the month of October-2009 in the world of biotech stocks.  There were some key gains seen in a couple names, but the overall trend in biotech short selling seems to be down.   We have given short interest data on Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD), Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB), Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), and Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ), Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN), Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE), Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN), Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI), Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN), and OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP).

Key data is below with the short interest and the percentage change from mid-October to the end of october:

Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 14,737,921  -9.5%
10/15/2009. 16,286,597

Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 16,198,837  +10.2%
10/15/2009. 14,703,407

Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 7,370,581  -4.6%
10/15/2009. 7,725,108

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 8,574,239  -2.9%
10/15/2009. 8,827,991

Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 5,118,715  -36%
10/15/2009. 8,085,099

Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 12,907,169   -1.9%
10/15/2009. 15,152,295

Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 7,746,689  +8.0%
10/15/2009. 7,173,192

Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 8,427,630 +0.4%
10/15/2009. 8.398,235

Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 17,160,491  -4.5%
10/15/2009. 17,967,328

Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 10,199,665  -17%
10/15/2009. 12,347,842

OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 5,415,588  +4%
10/15/2009. 5,212,729

JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 11, 2009

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BioHealth Earnings Floodgates Opening (BSX, BIIB, GILD, ISRG, PFE, DGX, SYK, AMGN, ELN, LLY, GENZ, STJ, BMY, MRK, SGP, ZMH)

October 16, 2009 · Filed Under Financial, General · Comments Off 

Next week is going to be the mother of all earnings reports for the BioHealth community.  We have included the key device companies as well in this calendar with the routine top drug and biotech companies.  As a reminder, these estimates may change between now and when some of the players report earnings.  In the screens for earnings we have the estimates included listed as the Thomson Reuters consensus figures.

MONDAY OCTOBER 19

  • Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) $0.14 EPS on $2.04 billion in revenues

TUESDAY OCTOBER 20

  • Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) $1.04 EPS on $1.11 billion in revenues
  • Gilead Sciences    Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) $0.67 EPS on $1.76 billion in revenues
  • Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) $1.46 EPS and $256.44 million in revenues
  • Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) $0.48 EPS and $11.4 billion in revenues
  • Quest Diagnostics Inc. (NYSE: DGX) $0.96 EPS and $1.89 billion in revenues
  • Stryker Corp. (NYSE: SYK) $0.69 EPS and $$1.62 billion in revenues

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 21

  • Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) $1.27 EPS and $3.79 billion in revenues
  • Elan Corporation, plc (NYSE: ELN) -$0.13 EPS on $285.18 million in revenues
  • Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) $1.01 EPS and $5.4 billion in revenues
  • Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ) $0.44 EPS and $1.11 billion in revenues
  • St. Jude Medical, Inc. (NYSE: STJ) $0.58 EPS and $1.16 billion in revenues

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22

  • Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) $0.51 EPS and $5.5 billion in revenues
  • Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) $0.83 EPS and $6 billion in revenues
  • Schering-Plough    Corporation (NYSE: SGP) $0.39 EPS and $4.45 billion in revenues
  • Zimmer Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ZMH) $0.86 EPS and $953.6 million in revenues

JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 16, 2009

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Biotech Short Sellers Changing Beat (AMGN, GILD, BIIB, CELG, GENZ, LIFE, DNDN, HGSI, AMLN, OSIP)

October 12, 2009 · Filed Under Cancer, Financial, General, dendreon, vaccine · Comments Off 

Over the weekend we got to see some of the short interest changes for the key biotech stocks.  While these was no clear unified directional move, there were some interesting changes seen.  Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD), Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB), Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), and Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ).  Due to growing market caps in the sector, we have also included Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE), Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN), Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI), Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN), and OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP)in the run down this month.

Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009  18,363,198.. 5% GAIN
9/15/2009  17,449,497

Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009  16,015,311.. 3.8% GAIN
9/15/2009  15,466,285

Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009  8,177,698.. 9% DROP
9/15/2009  8,935,957

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009  9,459,673.. 1% DROP
9/15/2009  9,565,418

Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009  8,771,379.. 19% GAIN
9/15/2009  7,388,108

Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009  6,799,196.. 3% DROP
9/15/2009  7,033,841

Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009  8,939,869.. 2% DROP
9/15/2009  9,146,253

Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009  19,786,339.. 1% DROP
9/15/2009  19,867,823

Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009  13,171,869.. 5.7% DROP
9/15/2009  13,928,154

OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009  5,444,450.. 5.8% GAIN
9/15/2009  5,137,212

JON C. OGG

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360 Degree Review of Genzyme Ahead of FDA Event (GENZ)

August 31, 2009 · Filed Under Cancer, R&D, fda · Comments Off 

Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ) is trying to recover from the woes of its Cerezyme and Fabrazyme drug shortages and delays from the Allston, Massachusetts plant, but the company has a date with the FDA this week that might be more important than the ongoing issues elsewhere.  Last week, the company noted that FDA reviewers questioned a study meant to review the leukemia drug called Clolar ahead of this Tuesday’s panel meeting.

Clolar is currently used for treating leukemia in children and the company is seeking a broader use to treat adults with acute myeloid leukemia, which is a blood cancer called AML.  It seems that the FDA is finding it difficult to interpret the study results because of a lack of a randomized study combined with the heterogeneous patient population regarding AML prognostic factors.  The main study tested Clolar in elderly patients with previously untreated AML and at least one other factor that gave them a poor prognosis and it appears that the study did not include a comparison group of patients who were not treated with the drug.

There was a figure from Reuters, citing Sanford Bernstein’s biotech analyst, that showed over half of the drug sales in the U.S. already come from adult AML use.  But this morning there was a downgrade by Robert W. Baird’s biotech analyst, who downgraded the firm to Neutral from Outperform and gave a price target of $58.00 from $64.00 as the prior target.  It has also been about a week since Leerink Swann & Co.’s analyst upgraded the Genzyme rating to ‘Outperform” from “market perform.”  And last week we also saw that Collins Stewart’s biotech analyst reiterated a “Buy” rating.

AML affects over 12,000 new patients a year and it appears that there have been no real first-line therapy choices for patients for years.  There also appears to be no direct standard of care comparison.  If the panel backing is in favor of the company, which is generally followed for formal FDA drug approval, then the formal decision on Clolar would be out by the end of December.

This is not directly related to teh FDA panel meeting tomorrow, but the review of the Allston plant from the European Union cited one major deficiency at the plant and cited several lesser deficiencies.  Genzyme was forced to temporarily halt production at the Allston plant in June due to a contamination, which ultimately caused a shortage of its Cerezyme drug used to treat Gaucher disease, and Fabrazyme, for Fabry disease.  Again, this is not directly tied to the FDA event tomorrow but it has been an ongoing thorn in the side of the company.

As a result f concerns and as a result of this morning’s downgrade, Genzyme shares were down as much as 3% early on.  But now shares have recovered and are down only about 0.2% at $55.40 in early-afternoon trading.  As a result of the ongoing problems, Genzyme has not participated in the market strength in recent months as shares are at the bottom end of the $47.09 to $82.99 trading range of the last 52-weeks.

Genzyme is also well capitalized with over $1.1 billion in cash and short and longer investments.  It also has over $1.4 billion in total receivables, but this figure has grown substantially over the last year and has been rising.

Analysts still have an average price target that is north of $60.00 despite the woes, so there is some perceived upside.  But that is also on the heels of many earnings estimates being trimmed sharply for fiscal-2009 and somewhat for fiscal-2010.

JON C. OGG

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Value in Biotech: Do Low P/E Ratios Make For Cheap Stocks? (AMGN, BIB, CEPH, CBST, GENZ, PDLI)

August 22, 2009 · Filed Under Cancer, fda, multiple sclerosis, politics · Comments Off 

Biotechnology has historically been a very tough segment for investors to find “value” in.  Usually, the multiples of earnings and revenues are high and many of the emerging companies have no revenues or earnings and will not for years to come.  Yet we recently found a study of biotech analysts, investors, and portfolio managers from BIO and Thomson Reuters which showed how many influential investors in the new tougher world of lower valuations are looking at traditional low-price/earnings ratios and other traditional investment valuation metrics in evaluating biotech stocks.  So this week we ran a screen of some of the top 50 biotech stocks and wanted to review the following companies:

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN)
Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB)
Cephalon Inc. (NASDAQ: CEPH)
Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CBST)
Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ)
PDL BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: PDLI)

In each of these we reviewed the share prices and why these are trading where they are.  We also gave detailed data from Thomson Reuters for 2009 and 2010 consensus earnings and revenue estimates, as well as what their forward P/E and Times-Revenues figures are.  Also included are average analyst target prices and any recent calls.  We also gave the caveats, issues, or suppositions behind each company and a layout of what lies ahead.  We also had a market cap criteria, and while all of these companies are over $1 billion in market cap we were willing to look down as low as $400 million.  These six companies also greatly exceeded our average daily volume minimum of 250,000 shares.

Lastly, these were reviewed alphabetically rather than by any order of preference because each company and each case is rather unique.
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