Dividends Coming In Biotech & Pharma? (WCRX, AMGN, MRK, PFE, PPH, BBH)
Many investors have been focusing on the number of dividend raises we have so far seen since the end of December. It is the perfect vote of confidence issued by a company, much more so than a share buyback plan. The dividend means “we will be able to this rate over and over” for investors. There have been very few big moves in the BioHealth arena. We have two very interesting dividend candidates. Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) as the world’s largest independent biotech stock, and Warner Chilcott plc (NASDAQ: WCRX) as perhaps the newest and best up and comer in the pharmaceuticals sector.
Neither pay a dividend. Not yet. It would seem that the most likely candidate of the two would be Warner Chilcott because companies like Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) and Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) do pay dividends with roughly a 4% yield. Amgen is opting for share buybacks right now and its peers are not known for being thge greatest of the world’s dividend candidates. We wanted to take a look at each in a deep review of the basics that allow for dividends.
There is a precedent here. The two key ETF products we have used to follow the sector are in the HOLDRs family, which are the oldest of the drug and biotech ETF products. And they are liquid, mostly and usually. The Pharmaceutical HOLDRs (NYSE: PPM) pays dividends, but these are irregular and are dependent upon which shares are making quarterly distributions through each quarter. Then there is the Biotech HOLDRs (NYSE: BBH), which are currently less liquid than what we have seen in the past. Dividends are more sporadic here, but they are present.
WARNER CHILCOTT
Warner Chilcott plc (NASDAQ: WCRX) seems to quietly and rapidly emerging as one of the greatest drug companies on the scene in years. Many pharma and biohealth investors still do not even really know the company. If all goes well and according to plan, the company may be one of the best value stocks out there in the land of pharma and biotech. The company pays no dividend, but after we get a couple of more quarterly adjusted balance sheets and earnings reports behind us it seems as though the company will want to join Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) and Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) with a dividend to help further get on the map.
The stock has done very well since it completed the acquisition of the global branded pharmaceutical business from The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) on October 30, 2009. Its most recent guidance is as follows for 2010: Adjusted total revenue for 2010 after the impact of its distribution agreement with LEO Pharma A/S in range of $2.9 to $2.95 billion; Adjusted gross margin of 88% to 89%; Total SG&A expenses in the range of $1.2 to $1.25 billion; total R&D in the range of $180 to $200 million; net income of $190 to $215 million; adjusted cash net income in the range of $842 to $867 million; and using 255 million ordinary shares adjusted cash net income per share of $3.30 to $3.40 per share for the full year 2010.
We would think it is safe to assume that the company wants to get a couple more quarters to pass before a dividend is launched, but barring any other mergers we would expect the company to get on the map with a dividend. With shares close to $25.00, a 4% yield would be about $1.00 per year of that $3.30 to $3.40 per share in 2010 earnings. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $3.37 EPS and that would give a forward P/E ratio expected of less than 8-times earnings. An estimated guess is that the dividend will start at about $0.60 to $0.75 per year, for now.
AMGEN INC.
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) is the world’s biggest independent biotech by market cap. Yet the stock has been stodgy enough and its anemia franchise has been under fire enough that Amgen almost feels like a good old-fashioned Big Pharma stock now. It seems like an unlikely dividend stock on the surface and not just because it wants to be thought of as a biotech that does not pay dividends. So far, the company has chosen to conduct share buybacks to deploy cash and it is not in a hurry to begin paying a dividend.
In the investor Q&A of its investor relations site, the phase is there: “Amgen does not pay a dividend on stock, and does not foresee doing so in the immediate future.” There is an issue though and that is that the expected earnings growth leaves more and more room for Amgen to begin rewarding its shareholders. It recently announced a $5 billion share buyback, on top of the $1.2 billion remaining at the time still authorized for buybacks. But share buybacks were the shareholder-friendly actions of 2007 to 2009. In the new normal, the dividend may matter more to holders who want to get money back from companies. Amgen trades at a mere 11-times 2010 estimates from Thomson Reuters.
We do not want to say that Amgen has been dead money for five years, but it has been very quiet money. For more than 3 years the stock has had a hard time staying above $60 for very long. And for some time we have noted that Amgen is effectively valued more like a Big Pharma stock than a biotech stock. With $5 billion in cash flow and with a mountain of cash, it can afford a dividend on top of its debt and on top of its buyback plans. Both Merck & Co (NYSE: MRK) and Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) yield close to 4%, and Amgen could easily afford to pay close to 2% or $1.00 per share for its initial dividend rate.
There are two issues which would keep Amgen from paying a dividend for years. The first is a big acquisition, but the company likely knows that this would likely take its stock lower as we have seen in most buyer situations. Amgen could also embark on a huge debt pay-off in the future. That is also shareholder friendly. But initiating a dividend, and a noticeable one, might be the best effort the company could make.
JON C. OGG
FEBRUARY 11, 2010
Amgen Earnings: The Coin-Toss Continues… (AMGN)
Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) has just reported earnings that appear disappointing on the surface. The world’s largest independent biotech stock posted $1.05 EPS on revenue of $3.81 billion. Unfortunately, Thomson Reuters estimates were $1.12 EPS and $3.85 billion. The net number after backing out non-GAAP items was $0.92 EPS.
The company is issuing its 2010 guidance of $5.05 to $5.25 EPS on revenues of $15.1 to $15.5 billion. We have estimates of $5.12 EPS and $15.31 billion in revenues from Thomson Reuters.
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Top 2010 Established Biotech Stock Picks for Upside (MNKD, THRX, DNDN, INCY, ILMN, ALNY, GILD, SVNT, AMGN, ONXX, PDLI, OSIP, CELG)
BioHealthInvestor.com wanted to put together a list of key biotech and BioHealth-related stocks that had the most upside for 2010 according to consensus analyst price targets. This is of course no exact science for many reasons, but getting a lot of consensus price targets together is often a sign of at least where to start when looking for upward price targets in stocks. And we all know that BioHealth and biotech stocks often offer the upside of the century as these companies all hold a bit of your own personal lottery ticket in all of their share prices.
After taking a look at our normal universe of biotech and biohealth related stocks. it was obvious that MannKind Corp. (NASDAQ: MNKD) still has the most upside from the consensus price targets IF it is hit. Then in order of expected share price appreciation comes Theravance Inc. (NASDAQ: THRX), Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN), Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ: INCY), and then came Illumina Inc. (NASDAQ: ILMN), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALNY), and Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD).
The stocks above all had upside of over 25%. The other stocks here are the ‘lower rung’ of upside expectations but are all still offering over 20% upside to the consensus analyst price targets (again IF they are hit). Of the 13 stocks with markets caps of $750 million (or almost $750 million) which we cover, these still had upside of over 20% except a few: Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT), Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ONXX), PDL BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: PDLI), OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP), and Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG).
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Key Biotech Short Selling Changes in November (AMGN, BIIB, CELG, GILD, GENZ, GERN, LIFE, DNDN, HGSI, AMLN, OSIP)
We have now seen the changes in short selling in biotech stocks via the late-November short interest report from NASDAQ. This marks the changes seen at the November 30, 2009 settlement date versus a November 13 settlement date. We have given short interest data on Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB), Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD), Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ), Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN), Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE), Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN), Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI), Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN), and OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP).
Again, the change reflects the November 30 date versus a prior date of November 13:
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) 18,247,560 shares versus 15,888,876, a gain of 14.8%.
Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) 8,914,221 shares versus 8,201,010, a gain of 8.7%.
Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) 19,334,491 shares versus 20,330,539, a drop of -4.9%.
Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) 7,800,195 shares versus 8,122,937, a drop of -4.0%.
Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ) 3,835,576 shares versus 4,531,522, a drop of -15.4%
Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN) 13,846,894 shares versus 13,653,745, a gain of 1.4%.
Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE) 8,686,786 shares versus 8,950,719, a drop of -3.0%.
Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) 9,881,341 shares versus 9,105,303, a gain of 8.5%.
Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) 17,100,782 shares versus 17,571,094, a drop of -2.7%.
Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) 8,353,185 shares versus 8,538,392, a drop of -2.2%.
OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP) 5,471,010 versus 5,517,134, a drop of -0.8%.
JON C. OGG
December 10, 2009
Value Stocks in Drugs & Biotech (AMGN, BIIB, CBST, CEPH, PDLI)
This weekend we ran screens of several drug and biotech companies in our quest for ‘cheap stocks’ in the BioHealth sector. The intent is not solely for buyout targets because we prefer to look at value stocks rather than just picking buyout hopefuls. The obvious issue that makes most of these cheap is because there have been problems or have been issues that made these look cheap on the surface. To look for sub-market valuations, we used Thomson Reuters estimates for 2009 and 2010 earnings. We then set a maximum target of 15-times earnings and screened out the companies that gave the ‘false positives’ as there were many.
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB), Cephalon Inc. (NASDAQ: CEPH), Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CBST), and PDL BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: PDLI) all made the cut. We initially wanted to look for market caps over $1 billion, but we set the bar at $500 million and tried to focus on companies with growth. We included valuation data, performance, and some color on each name. Some, but not all of these, are also in our upcoming biotech buyout targets for 2010.
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) is one we have long noted during its waves of problems and as it was under future reimbursement pressure that may be more like an old fashioned drug company now as it has matured. The company’s market cap is $56 billion, which is actually now the largest market cap since Genentech is now Roche. Its stock trades at $55.48 and its 52-week trading range is $44.96 to $64.76. Because of the pressure and past issues, it trades at only about 11-times earnings for 2009 ($5.03 est.) and 2010 ($5.14 est.) both. It also trades at under 4-times 2009 and 2010 revenue expectations and it sits with an arsenal of almost $14 billion in cash and equivalents, yet has over $10.5 billion in long-term debt.
Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) is no stranger to issues… another activist was just out this week calling for more action and the company has not been able to get out from under the TYSABRI PML despite the notion that this is a very low risk. At $46.38, its market cap is $13.4 billion and its 52-week trading range is $37.21 to $55.34. Biogen has over $3.1 billion in cash if you include its short-term and long-term investments and it carries just under $1.1 billion in long-term debt. Biogen also trades at 11.6-times the $3.99 EPS target for 2009 and only 10.5-times the $4.42 target for 2010; and Biogen trades at 3-times 2009 expected sales. The risk is here is of course the TYSABRI risks. You never know if they will have to pull it again. This is an opinion rather than a formal target, but TYSABRI is good enough in treatments of MS that it could quite literally have two or three times the number of patients using it if the PML risk can either be quantified better or could be mitigated. Another issue is that it is trying to acquire Facet Biotech Corporation (NASDAQ: FACT) as a diversification and added pipeline move.
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Activist Going Back After Biogen Idec (BIIB, CELG, GILD, GENZ, AMGN)
Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) is not exactly new to the world of activist investors as there have been problems inside the company for years. An SEC filing this morning was filed by a fund called HealthCor Management, L.P. located in New York. It turns out that the fund is not a new entrant here, but the revelations are rather specific rather than broad and non-specific compared to other activist complaints. More importantly, the fund has CC’d in the following entities:
- PRIMECAP Management
- ClearBridge Advisors LLC
- Barclay’s Global Investors UK
- Fidelity Management & Research
- Icahn Capital LP
- Goldman Sachs Group
- State Street Corporation
- Vanguard Group Inc.
- Capital Research Group Investors
- Invesco Ltd.
Yep, you knew Carl Icahn was going to be in there. After all, the most recent Icahn holdings still showed Icahn holding a significant number of shares.
What is interesting is the data that HealthCor provided. It is calling for a specific buyback plan of $500 million to $1 billion worth of stock PER YEAR. It noted that Biogen Idec outspends and is expected to outspend all of its major large-cap biotech peers.
The activist group here compared the statistics (most of which include items) to Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD), Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ), Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), and Genentech-Roche.
R&D MARGINS (HISTORICAL AND CONSENSUS)
2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
CELG 24% 24% 26% 24% 24%
GILD 12% 12% 12% 13% 13%
GENZ 18% 17% 18% 16% 16%
AMGN 21% 19% 18% 18% 18%
DNA 20% 20% 20% 20% 19%
AVERAGE 19% 18% 19% 18% 18%
BIIB 29% 26% 27% 27% 26%
HealthCor also noted that Biogen has failed to maximize its earnings and cash generation potential. There is a complain that CEO James Mullen has sold approximately $85 million worth of stock.
Now that the market has stabilized, there are likely to be more activist filings made in realm of underperforming biotech stocks.
JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 20, 2009
Key Biotech Short Interest Changes (AMGN, GILD, BIIB, CELG, GENZ, GERN, LIFE, DNDN, HGSI, AMLN, OSIP)
We have now been able to see the short interest changes that took place over the month of October-2009 in the world of biotech stocks. There were some key gains seen in a couple names, but the overall trend in biotech short selling seems to be down. We have given short interest data on Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD), Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB), Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), and Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ), Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN), Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE), Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN), Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI), Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN), and OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP).
Key data is below with the short interest and the percentage change from mid-October to the end of october:
Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 14,737,921 -9.5%
10/15/2009. 16,286,597
Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 16,198,837 +10.2%
10/15/2009. 14,703,407
Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 7,370,581 -4.6%
10/15/2009. 7,725,108
Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 8,574,239 -2.9%
10/15/2009. 8,827,991
Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 5,118,715 -36%
10/15/2009. 8,085,099
Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 12,907,169 -1.9%
10/15/2009. 15,152,295
Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 7,746,689 +8.0%
10/15/2009. 7,173,192
Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 8,427,630 +0.4%
10/15/2009. 8.398,235
Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 17,160,491 -4.5%
10/15/2009. 17,967,328
Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 10,199,665 -17%
10/15/2009. 12,347,842
OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
10/30/2009. 5,415,588 +4%
10/15/2009. 5,212,729
JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 11, 2009
BioHealth Earnings Floodgates Opening (BSX, BIIB, GILD, ISRG, PFE, DGX, SYK, AMGN, ELN, LLY, GENZ, STJ, BMY, MRK, SGP, ZMH)
Next week is going to be the mother of all earnings reports for the BioHealth community. We have included the key device companies as well in this calendar with the routine top drug and biotech companies. As a reminder, these estimates may change between now and when some of the players report earnings. In the screens for earnings we have the estimates included listed as the Thomson Reuters consensus figures.
MONDAY OCTOBER 19
- Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) $0.14 EPS on $2.04 billion in revenues
TUESDAY OCTOBER 20
- Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) $1.04 EPS on $1.11 billion in revenues
- Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) $0.67 EPS on $1.76 billion in revenues
- Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) $1.46 EPS and $256.44 million in revenues
- Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) $0.48 EPS and $11.4 billion in revenues
- Quest Diagnostics Inc. (NYSE: DGX) $0.96 EPS and $1.89 billion in revenues
- Stryker Corp. (NYSE: SYK) $0.69 EPS and $$1.62 billion in revenues
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 21
- Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) $1.27 EPS and $3.79 billion in revenues
- Elan Corporation, plc (NYSE: ELN) -$0.13 EPS on $285.18 million in revenues
- Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) $1.01 EPS and $5.4 billion in revenues
- Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ) $0.44 EPS and $1.11 billion in revenues
- St. Jude Medical, Inc. (NYSE: STJ) $0.58 EPS and $1.16 billion in revenues
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22
- Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) $0.51 EPS and $5.5 billion in revenues
- Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) $0.83 EPS and $6 billion in revenues
- Schering-Plough Corporation (NYSE: SGP) $0.39 EPS and $4.45 billion in revenues
- Zimmer Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ZMH) $0.86 EPS and $953.6 million in revenues
JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 16, 2009
Biotech Short Sellers Changing Beat (AMGN, GILD, BIIB, CELG, GENZ, LIFE, DNDN, HGSI, AMLN, OSIP)
Over the weekend we got to see some of the short interest changes for the key biotech stocks. While these was no clear unified directional move, there were some interesting changes seen. Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD), Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB), Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), and Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ). Due to growing market caps in the sector, we have also included Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE), Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN), Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI), Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN), and OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP)in the run down this month.
Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009 18,363,198.. 5% GAIN
9/15/2009 17,449,497
Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009 16,015,311.. 3.8% GAIN
9/15/2009 15,466,285
Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009 8,177,698.. 9% DROP
9/15/2009 8,935,957
Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009 9,459,673.. 1% DROP
9/15/2009 9,565,418
Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009 8,771,379.. 19% GAIN
9/15/2009 7,388,108
Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009 6,799,196.. 3% DROP
9/15/2009 7,033,841
Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009 8,939,869.. 2% DROP
9/15/2009 9,146,253
Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009 19,786,339.. 1% DROP
9/15/2009 19,867,823
Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009 13,171,869.. 5.7% DROP
9/15/2009 13,928,154
OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
9/30/2009 5,444,450.. 5.8% GAIN
9/15/2009 5,137,212
JON C. OGG
Value in Biotech: Do Low P/E Ratios Make For Cheap Stocks? (AMGN, BIB, CEPH, CBST, GENZ, PDLI)
Biotechnology has historically been a very tough segment for investors to find “value” in. Usually, the multiples of earnings and revenues are high and many of the emerging companies have no revenues or earnings and will not for years to come. Yet we recently found a study of biotech analysts, investors, and portfolio managers from BIO and Thomson Reuters which showed how many influential investors in the new tougher world of lower valuations are looking at traditional low-price/earnings ratios and other traditional investment valuation metrics in evaluating biotech stocks. So this week we ran a screen of some of the top 50 biotech stocks and wanted to review the following companies:
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN)
Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB)
Cephalon Inc. (NASDAQ: CEPH)
Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CBST)
Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ)
PDL BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: PDLI)
In each of these we reviewed the share prices and why these are trading where they are. We also gave detailed data from Thomson Reuters for 2009 and 2010 consensus earnings and revenue estimates, as well as what their forward P/E and Times-Revenues figures are. Also included are average analyst target prices and any recent calls. We also gave the caveats, issues, or suppositions behind each company and a layout of what lies ahead. We also had a market cap criteria, and while all of these companies are over $1 billion in market cap we were willing to look down as low as $400 million. These six companies also greatly exceeded our average daily volume minimum of 250,000 shares.
Lastly, these were reviewed alphabetically rather than by any order of preference because each company and each case is rather unique.
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