Why Byetta may be the efficacy leader among many diabetes candidates (LLY, ALKS, SNY, NVO, GSK)

July 21, 2009 · Filed Under General 

Partners Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) And Alkermes Inc. (Nasdaq: ALKS) announced data Monday that further supports its weekly Byetta candidate, although the FDA still may have questions about the entire class of long-acting diabetes treatments.

The data in the anticipated Duration 3 trial of once-weekly Byetta was solid. The candidate demonstrated better efficacy in a head-to-head comparison to Sanofi Aventis’ (NYSE: SNY) Lantus once-daily injection, the class leader. In a trial involving 467 Type 2 diabetes patients, once-weekly Byetta showed a 1.5 percent reduction in A1c levels vs. the baseline, compared to a 1.3 percent reduction for Lantus.

An added benefit of taking the drug may be weight loss. The mean weight loss for once-weekly Byetta patients was 5.8 pounds during the 26-week trial. Mean weight loss was 3.1 pounds for study subjects taking Lantus.

There were no new safety concerns raised. Common side effects were respiratory infection and nausea.

It’s hard to compare all the drugs in the class against one another, but it appears based on the efficacy data that once-weekly Byetta may put it at the top of a class that includes Lantus, Novo Nordisk’s (NYSE: NVO) Victoza, and GlaxoSmithKline’s (NYSE: GSK) Avandia.

The big lingering question is the FDA’s view of all the diabetes drug candidates called GLP-1 analogs. The agency is reviewing heart-related safety data of candidates among many of the drugs in the class.

It also may be looking at possible cancer ties. The journal Diabetologia, associated with the European Association for the Study of Diabetes in late June published four studies that made a possible link between Sanofi’s Lantus and cancer. The studies fell short of making  a direct link, but they raised plenty of questions. At the time, analysts became concerned that more questions could be asked  about many drugs, if not the entire class of long-acting diabetes drugs.

The FDA’s view of Novo Norisk’s candidate could be important to the entire group. In April, its heart-related safety was seen as mostly favorable, based an 8-to-5 FDA panel vote. The decision was split, however, on if it should be put on the market. That company’s earnings report in early August might specify the FDA’s upcoming timeline. The drug received EU approval earlier this month.

The Novo Nordisk FDA timing may provide clues as to whether the FDA want to see more studies for many, if not all drugs in the class, which may extend the approval processes. — Mike Tarsala

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