Glaxo's Cervarix makes strides, but it still faces tough competition (GSK, MRK)

July 7, 2009 · Filed Under General 

GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) announced a positive study on its Cervarix vaccine today, although it remains to be seen if the company can play catch-up to Merck & Co.’s (NYSE: MRK) Gardasil.

An analysis of the largest efficacy trial of a cervical cancer vaccine involving more than 18,000 women was published in “The Lancet”. The study suggests Cervarix is highly effective at protecting against the two most common cervical cancer-causing human papilloma virus types, 16 and 18.

The study also showed that the vaccine provides cross-protection against human HPV types 31, 33 and 45, the three most common cancer-causing virus types other than  16 and 18.

“This is really good news for primary prevention of cervical cancer”, said Thomas Breuer, the chief medical officer forGlaxoSmithKline Biologicals.

What the news doesn’t say is how Cervarix will gain a foothold against Merck’s Gardasil, which has been on the U.S. market since 2006, and has a huge sales lead, with annual revenue of about $1.5 million.

And 1-2-3, what are they fighting for? Merck has been struggling with sales of Gardasil over the past 12 to 18 months.  Some parents are reluctant to have their young daughters vaccinated in their early teen years, partially due to poor market awareness, and partially due to safety worries.

Glaxo is expected to bring Cervarix to the U.S. market later this year, in hopes of taking market share.

But the prospects aren’t stellar. Cervarix may not ever exceed Merck’s current revenue from Gardasil. And if it does, it still appears unlikely to even get half of the U.S. market share. It simply got too late of a start in a market that might not even be all that attractive in the coming years — Mike Tarsala

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