Is Lilly’s Loss Really Others’ Gain? (LLY, PFE, BMY, SNE)
Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) is following the lead of Pfizer…. in need of a new breed of drugs, and with shares on the 52-week low list and on a multi-year low list.
The FDA has pushed back a decision regarding its anti-clotting blood thinner with its partner Daiichi Sankyo in Japan. Prasugrel is called EFFIENT and the drug had original been fast tracked at the FDA. But there are issues over excessive bleeding from the blood thinner, which means too much efficacy. While part of the problem may stem from the raw amount of data for the delay, you have to wonder if there will be some dosing issues with such large amounts of bleeding. We now won’t know until late September for the next potential FDA decision.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) is up 2% at $20.10 late in the day and Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) is up 1.7% at $32.75 as this puts off that much more time that Plavix will be the number one blood thinner on the market.
So far we have seen over 19,500 of the JUL08 $50 CALLS and over 25,400 of the JUL08 $45 PUTS in Lilly trade hands today.
If you want to know the size of the market up for grabs, we noted before that Bristol-Myers saw some $3.4 Billion in sales of Plavix in the first 9-months of 2007 alone.
Jon Ogg
June 24, 2008